Whether a better strategy exist?

Through the previous posts, we have analysed the snapshot performance of valuepick recommendations throughout the years ( excluding shares mentioned under risky strategy ). My quench is to find whether a better strategy exist?

Yes its really there. Through out these years, we have seen Valuepick giving lot of REPEAT calls. And I am going to evaluate the performance of these calls, assuming we are only investing at the time where repeat is given and the share price is taken at that repeat call time (NOT initial buy price) to make the strategy a fair one.

I got a list of 39 companies coming to this category ( considering 2010 -13 REPEAT calls only), and assuming we are investing a fixed sum of Rs. 10000/- for each of these calls, what will be the present value of this investment? Our total investment amount will be Rs. 3.9 Lakhs ( 39 * 10000/-).

Lets find out the details

SL No	Company	Quantity (No. of Shares)	Purchase Price	CMP	Present Value	Gain in %
1	Advanta	126	79.00	169.85	21,401.10	115.00
2	Agro Tech Foods Ltd.	22	450.00	478.00	10,516.00	6.22
3	Aries Agro Ltd.	69	145.00	59.65	4,115.85	-58.86
4	Ashapura Min. Lt	263	38.00	58.00	15,254.00	52.63
5	Avanti Feeds Lim	92	109.00	585.10	53,829.20	436.79
6	BASF India Lt	17	585.00	740.05	12,580.85	26.50
7	Bambino Agro Ind	250	40.00	76.35	19,087.50	90.88
8	Britannia Ind.	18	575.00	845.10	15,211.80	46.97
9	Butterfly Gandhima	51	194.00	341.00	17,391.00	75.77
10	Camlin Fine Sciences *	500	20.00	58.40	29,200.00	192.00
11	Cosmo Ferrites	625	16.00	7.70	4,812.50	-51.88
12	Cummins India Lt	21	465.00	526.90	11,064.90	13.31
13	Eastern Gases Li	555	18.00	15.90	8824.5	-11.76
14	Fortis Healthcare	62	162.00	98.70	6,119.40	-39.07
15	GEI Industrial Syste	58	170	27.85	1,615.30	-83.62
16	Godrej Industries Lt	54	186	292.00	15,768.00	56.99
17	Granules India L	116	86	397.00	46,052.00	361.63
18	Harita Seating Syst.	139	72	80.00	11,120.00	11.11
19	Intl. Travel Hou	41	240	193.20	7,921.20	-19.50
20	Ion Exchange (India)	79	126	99.90	7,892.10	-20.71
21	Jagatjit Ind.	90	110	48.45	4,360.50	-55.95
22	Kaveri Seed Company *	167	60	608.40	101,602.80	914.00
23	Kennametal India	22	450	598.00	13,156.00	32.89
24	La Opala RG Ltd.	53	190	859.65	45,561.45	352.45
25	Liberty Shoes Li	89	112	172.60	15,361.40	54.11
26	Multibase India Ltd.	323	31	57.45	18,556.35	85.32
27	Neuland Laborat	79	127	299.00	23,621.00	135.43
28	Opto Circuits India	34	295	31.65	1,076.10	-89.27
29	Orchid Chem & Ph	73	136	52.30	3,817.90	-61.54
30	Roto Pumps Ltd	100	100	178.50	17,850.00	78.50
31	Simran Farms Lim	232	43	13.95	3,236.40	-67.56
32	Sri Adhikari Bro	256	39	70.55	18,060.80	80.90
33	Tata Chemicals	29	350	283.80	8,230.20	-18.91
34	Timex Group India	238	42	10.54	2,508.52	-74.90
35	Tokyo Plast Inte	714	14	13.00	9,282.00	-7.14
36	Transpek Indus.	84	119	165.20	13,876.80	38.82
37	Vesuvius India	27	371	512.00	13,824.00	38.01
38	Vimal Oil & Food	92	109	175.00	16,100.00	60.55
39	WPIL Ltd.	53	190	221.00	11,713.00	16.32
					661,572.42	69.63 %

* -- Purchase price adjusted for Corporate Actions

The total value will be 6.61 Lakhs ! A return  of almost 70 % vs a 22% return by Sensex. Which clearly beats the 49 % we got while investing in his all recommended picks or even post 2010 recommendation return of 58 %. Also this beats the market / Sensex by a whopping 218 %!!


So as a thump rule, I am putting an additional criteria to our selected portfolio to include a minimum of 60% weightage of VP REPEATED picks (which of-course satisfies presently too).

PS : Some of the shares in the above list may not be suitable for investing purpose presently and/or your style of investing. The list contains all the shares mentioned in REPEAT call, and have to be taken as  an academic work, rather than for share screening  purpose.