Friday, 18 April 2014

A Snapshot of Up & Down

It's more than four years  the valuepick blog is providing us with insightful investment ideas, and now I am just trying to analyse the Up & Down patterns of his picks.

Through the years he recommended more than 300 Companies ( A very commendable number indeed) and, which included Recommendations to Buy, Watch, Keep an eye, Safe bets, Risky, Extremely Risky, Multibagger, Reiterate, and Repeat calls along with some profit book / loss book suggestions.

Out of these 300, there are few companies he already recommended to exit either on profit or loss. Also few companies are delisted. Around 30 companies falls in to this list.

Next I analysed his High Risk / Watch bets, around 40 companies  falls in to this category. But unfortunately very few of these recommendations out performed ( I will give you a detailed study of these companies later as a separate post).

So, Now I am going to concentrate on the remaining companies, precisely 232 companies, which include his recommendations from 2010 to 2013 (Excluding 2014 ongoing call, since it is too early to evaluate the performance of recent calls).

I am giving a snapshot of these 232 companies here.



Year Number of Recommendations Advances Neutral* Declines
2010 119 41 26 52
2011 47 24 10 13
2012 39 16 14 9
2013 27 19 5 3
Total 232 100 55 77

* Neutral ( -20% to 0% to +20% movement is taken as neutral, since these movements are inherent to the market with less a cause)

These figures may some times looks quite ordinary to you. But the more we analyse into the details, we may find new insights. That details covered in the next posts.

PS: I have selected these particular days to analyse these recommendation since, even though the market is at almost high, its not true for midcaps and small caps. The average market values for these shares are neither cheap nor highly stretched. So personally feeling this is the right time to analyse these share values with all possible justification ( Taken 15th - APR - 2014 share values as the Market Price of shares in this research and BSE SENSEX @ 22,484)

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